Let me offer you one reason for what you describe as a "pretty average analysis".
It is that our 10% stake is NOT going to be the tail that wags the Dorado dog. Whoever controls the 80% stake at the end of the WDS-STO merger, and its corresponding closeness to FID, is going to be the prime determinant of the SP at the time a takeover offer for our 10% is made (if one is to be made).
Let's face it, if a bid was made a few months ago when the SP was 11.5 cents, many would have accepted 15 cents! But if a $1 bid is lobbed in after the merger, and it looks like first oil might occur within 18 months, the acceptance rate would be much less.
No surprises then that I think the key is the outcome of this WDS-STO merger. WDS is involved in many FIDs around the world and recently bought BHP's petroleum business. A potential FID with 100k barrels per day for several years (and more depending on what else they find in Bedout), where they have some infrastructure, is entirely possible.
The focus ain't on our tiny 10% stake. It's on the 80% and the rest of the Bedout basin.
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