As David Whitby said at the AGM back in 2005 the question is no...

As David Whitby said at the AGM back in 2005 the question is no longer 'If' but when will Nido be recognized. I can't find another company that has the potential, the expertise and the wherewithal to finance an incredible exploration program. I'm afraid, however, that the financial crisis will set back the company back until it can announce new substantial exploration drilling. That will be dependent on the new farm-in partner and when they choose to make a decision to drill.

Working backwards from spud, I would expect nine months minimum from the day the new JV commit to a floating rig contract to secure all the necessary equipment and get the rig onsite. Prior to that the Philippines regulator needs to vet and approve the farm in. The DOE are not known for their speed. I reckon a minimum three months for a total of one year from the date the JV is announced. This pushes things into 2010 before any significant action and I conclude that NDO will trade sideways for most of that period. I don't believe that the announcement of the farm-in partner will move investors to buy if they realize the time involved in getting the bit into the ground.

In the meantime Galoc will bring in the cash, there will be a reserves upgrade in six months and the Galoc JV will announce the second development phase which may add another 32.2 mmbbl OOIP to Galoc with the addition of another well or two. THis might be worth 3-4 cps.

Yakal and Tindalo, what a disappointment. 8.3 mmbbl in place from two wells if you believe the KIK numbers. No testing until 2010 and they would not be worth 4 cps if successful, imo.

IMHO, NDO are a fantastic long term investment but it will take more than a year to see anything moving. Investors will find other places to play that offer better short term returns. Lots of time to come back to Nido before the real campaign gets underway.

Regards,

opt