the future..., page-54

Big Lebowski,

OK maybe I was out of line regarding yourself, it's just that negative "news" (usually more opinion than news) seems to be reported with glee not with detachment.

I don't know you, I don't know your life. There are others on here who clearly have missed several boats and yearn for a crash for their own personal reasons.

They feel that a crash will hurt the people who have benefited in the past (this is driven by envy) and will allow themselves to buy in at levels in by-gone years.

The fact that the community as a whole has to experience massive pain just to facilitate their redemption is neither here nor there to them, they just want to feel less like losers, even if that is comparative only.

Sadly, I am certain that the exact same personality shortfall which prevented them from acting last time would prevent them from acting this time even if they were presented with the opportunity.

So even if their wish came true and there was wholesale destruction of the economy and pain was everywhere, it wouldn't achieve a thing for them because their inadequacy is imprinted in their DNA.

I think 2009 will be a tough year, on that we all agree. All I am arguing is that investment money has to go somewhere. It will temporarily go to cash in the wait-and-see period. Maybe 6-9 months, maybe 12 months.

After that, a large part of it will flow to property partially because the wounds of the share market will still be raw. Also because rental returns will be high, interest rates will be low.

When that money flows to property there will be 2-3 years of healthy growth before it flattens and money moves back to the share market.

I am not forecasting astronomical growth, I am forecasting good risk/reward growth compared to the other two asset classes.

Investors will invest, it is only a question of where they will invest not if they will invest.