With a 1H25 eps of 2.2c and an expected EBITDA of $10.25m (mid range), I estimate FY25 eps @ around 2.8c.
The key as to whether the price justifies the potential dividend depends upon the cash flows and CAF seem to have a payout ratio around the 80% mark for FY24, yet for FY23 they paid out an astonishing 137%.
The final divvy payout for FY24 of $3.48m came hard on the heels of a lopsided NPAT/Cash Ops + D&A ratio of just 75%. No wonder the cash was sucked up by the dividend. Cash balances dropped from $12.2m to $9.2m. To honour a final divvy of around 2c for FY25 (it was 1.8c last year and 2.0c in FY23) they will need to have generated some excess cash over the eps likely for 2HFY25 of 0.6c or we will see the cash balance diminish yet again or it will have to be borrowed. So, no, I don't think the dividend is sustainable at around 3c.
But this is not the only predictor of the direction of the SP. I think everyone is hanging out to hear how the IconiQ platform is performing. If it is, its off to the races.
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CAF Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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