... and you would guess that the market has factored in that...

... and you would guess that the market has factored in that safety isn't a problem.

Here's a hypothetical: let's assume worst case that we get a trial result like ACL: no efficacy to speak of. Where do people think the price will go?

At the moment, at around $124m market cap, and working on a simple (but not stupid) model of probabilities and expected market caps if the company were successful, NEU is priced as if there were only one Phase II trial, not four.

The question to me is: how much does the market "combine" the trials together in its reasoning? And is there a sense that: if one fails they all fail but if one succeeds that's no guarantee of the others? In other words, if Rett Ph II fails does that mean that the market will discount NEU a huge amount a la ACL? Or would the drop not be so bad because there are three other Ph II trials on the go?

I'm guessing the price would drop like a stone and then recover somewhat. The absolute worst case I could imagine on technical grounds would be 4c or so.