......yes POS but at the end of the day US army support and director buying mean not a lot.
A whole lot of people did a whole lot of clever and quite convincing modelling on ACL for what they thought the likely Ph III outcomes would be. While they stated up front that they knew they could be wrong, these were not bunnies throwing numbers around at random (well they kind of were I suppose, they were doing Monte Carlo).
What I'm saying is that we do have to be prepared for the worst case outcome, which, on a purely statistical basis averaged across all companies, is the most likely. On ACL for example, brokers rated the worst case outcome as giving ACL a value of 30c and it's fallen to 10c. Now with 3 remaining Ph II trials after Rett I can't see us falling to a market cap of 20m but I am interested in people's thoughts about how bad it could get.
Like I say my money's on 4c on the basis of that being resistance for so long before the climb through to 8 and 14c. That's a market cap of about 60m which, as a worst case situation, feels about right.
Obviously I'd prefer a successful trial and a $1 share price. But given 65% of Phase II trials fail, I think it's worth spending a little time looking at the opposite of the I'm-going-to-be-rich scenario.
NEU Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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