The good the bad and the ugly

Well management have been weaving their magic lately and some good, some bad and some results are very ugly.

Firstly let’s give credit where credit is due. Management did get CNE and COP to drill last year and they did find oil in two out of two wells which is very rare in the oil industry. This alone has given FAR the chance of returning some profit to shareholders. Management has now assured its future by farming into Djiffere leases. If you remember what CN said at the IP early this year she didn’t believe we would go into production with our current leases as we would be brought out. If that happens FAR will be cashed up and ready to drill low cost shallow water wells by 2018, all very positive giving SH a very exciting future.

The bad: a lot of people here on HC will not agree with the following statements: the CR was handled badly firstly done before good news from SNE2 was issued therefore dropping the SP from the 9’s to 8’s. Then CN listen to shareholders and included them in the CR assuming that the current SH would support FAR. Management then didn’t track the take up of SH CR and at the last minute once it was too late issue a statement stating they were personally supporting the CR, this should have been done at least a week before close, not the date of close. The lack of SH support then dropped the SP into the 7’s.

Yes I can hear you all yelling at you screen saying we needed the cash to ensure we could meet our commitments, not to look like a lame duck and prevent a low ball offer and takeover. Timing is everything and the way the above was handle gave a message to the market of desperation hence the drop from the 9’s to the 7’s. Do I believe that FAR is in a desperate position, hell no when you look at the support from large SH (Farjoy) and SI: I believe FAR has a very bright long term future.

Last week some bright poster mentioned the word duster in association with SNE2. I find this so irritating as we are not looking for oil, we know it’s there : we are testing how well connected the sands are between SNE2 and SNE3 and doing flow testing to determine the min 200mb for SNE to be commercial. What posters need to do now is wait for results, there are a large number of HC posters that trade FAR hence when news is not what we expect or delayed they short their position by selling their shares. When you add the trading for the last week you soon realise that it is only a very small part of all FAR shares. Rome was not built in a day and we are still a long way off from fully understanding what we have in our leases. It's management job to ensure that SH get good returns on it's assets. The oil industry moves slowly regardless of what FAR SH wants.

The Ugly: have very little to say about these points SP and POO. Long term the world will need to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel and how this is done over what time frame is the most important point for energy companies like Shell, Total etc. These time frames normally blow out compared to the timetable first predicted. Just hope the POO recovers enough so that FAR achieves a good price for its sale of the SNE and FAN fields.

Some of my favourite posts this week have include the word “prognosed” if we are going Da Vinic code on all the ann lets go all the way. Sometimes you learn more from what is not said than said. We were told that the 3D was completed over the Djifere block, yes we all knew this as we watched Adira sail pasted Dakar earlier this week. CN didn’t state that the 3D was completed over the JV leases, the only reference to the JV 3D is the same map we have seen in pervious ann. We know that ann regarding the JV has to be approved and the JV may not consider the completion of the 3D worth an ann. So what hidden message was there......... we have to wait 8 months to get the results, they must be a lot of data to process.

So let’s look at the timing

1. Three wells completed by June 2016
2. Results of 3D by end of July 2016
3. Decision to drill well in Djifere October 2016

So it’s going to be very exciting Mid to late next year, the good news is that FAR may just decide to do a CR to drill the Djifere block as they would use a simple and cheap jack up rig.

Some posters have worked their spreadsheets to death, but I prefer a simpler approach. I have two options firstly I can pick an exit point whether it’s 12.5c,15c or 35c and wait for that event to happen. Or I put my faith in the hands of management and wait until they sell their main assets. I understand that by going over and over the spreadsheets makes some posters feel that they are contributing and in control of their decisions but we are in the hands of management and the markets which keep changing.

If it walks like a duck and quack like a duck you would think you have a duck, but that’s only true if the HC mods agree with you. Sometime a duck is a sheep if that what the mods say, and if you disagree with the mods you get a holiday from HC as three posters did this week. All in good fun, HC is only really entertainment as we pass away the days waiting for the results

DYOR and IMHO

MagicMonkey
Magical thinking does work!