Like many here I have spent years (5/6) studying this sector; night and day X 7 day's a week. In so doing I have read and listened to every piece of information available, including the numerous predictions made by analysts about how much lithium will be required to supply the market by 2025 to 2030, and have thus concluded that they are locked in to a paradigm of a great underestimation - providing the battery cell manufacturers can keep up with demand.
Fixated on EVs, and to a lessor extent storage batteries, they fail to see the awakening giants of grid storage, grid smoothers and home storage (including EV home storage feedback). They also seem to discount the baby giants like E-bikes (see recent E-bike act USA) and E-tools like the humble motor mower and chainsaws, and E-agricultural ATVs, Asian rickshaws, golf buggies, short hop planes, vacuum cleaners and robotics - the list never ending.
I am in no doubt whatsoever that the world has now entered the greatest change in energy transfer from burning fossil fuels to E - technology. And yes, it will take some time for big cost items like EVs to transplant ICE vehicles - BUT, small cost items like motor mowers, chainsaws, pushbikes and the like in the billions are easy and quick to replace, and the cumulative effect of these babies of lithium demand is understated and under analysed. So too the storage sector - homes and grids; the awakening giants, which are fast becoming mandatory to even out power fluctuation due to the mass uptake of solar.
Therefore, I contend that the analysts are underestimating demand. The question is: Can the battery cell manufacturers keep up with said demand?
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