The Greatest Capital Raise We've Ever Seen?

This is a Game Changer - Australia Now Owns Liontown! Do You?

Everyone is focused on dilution, but they're missing the bigger picture!
What just happened today is more than a capital raise. It is a complete strategic reset and one that sets LTR apart from the rest of the pack.

Here is what I think the market is not fully pricing in yet:

1. $422 Million War Chest Secured at the Bottom

Liontown just raised $266 million through a fully underwritten placement by the UBS (They underwrote double the public price target for LTR), plus a $20 million Share Purchase Plan (SPP) at 73 cents. This brings the pro forma cash position to around $422 million, giving the company at least two years of runway even in a low-price environment. With lithium prices bouncing in China, that runway may be more than enough to outlast the downturn and lead the recovery.

2. The Government Is Now a Shareholder

The National Reconstruction Fund Corporation has taken a $50 million stake in Liontown. This is only the second time the NRF has made a listed equity investment. It sends a clear signal: Liontown and Kathleen Valley are nationally significant. The government is now backing the project and this changes everything. Access to future funding, strategic support, and lower cost of capital is now firmly on the table.

3. Gina Rinehart's Quiet Signal

Hancock Prospecting, which famously bought a 19.9 percent blocking stake in Liontown at $3 per share to block Albemarle's takeover, has chosen not to participate in this raise. That is not necessarily bearish it may be calculated. But the key point is that she is still holding. Her cost base is four times the current price. If she believed Liontown was doomed, she would not still be on the register. She is waiting for her time to strike!

4. Lithium Prices Are Already Rising in China

After falling as low as US$575 per tonne in June, spodumene has bounced back to around US$700-$800. Sentiment has not caught up to pricing yet but it will! The equity market always lags the physical. Those watching lithium spot markets closely will know the bottom is already behind us. When the rerating comes, Liontown will already be cashed up and producing!

5. Kathleen Valley Is Fully Owned and Expansion Ready

Liontown still owns 100 percent of Kathleen Valley. The underground expansion to 4 million tonnes per annum is not cancelled it is paused until prices improve. No farm-outs. No joint ventures. No diluted assets. This is a rare thing in the lithium sector right now!

6. The SPP Is a Gift to Retail

Retail holders can buy up to $30,000 of shares at the same price as the institutions being 73 cents. That is a 13.6 percent discount to the price and nearly 75 percent lower than Albemarle’s $3 bid from 2023. All directors are participating. With lithium sentiment shifting, we could see a rush of retail interest as prices move!

Why 73 Cents Might Not Hold - It Might Launch!!!

To say that LTR is going back to the lows assumes the market is ignoring all of this. But retail knows better and institutional investors certainly do. With lithium turning and Liontown’s reset positioning, there is every reason the price never hits 73 cents again or if it does, it may bounce rapidly.

Let the numbers do the talking:

Market Capitalisation Estimates

		Shares
1	Existing Shares on Issue	2,429,404,980
2	Placement Shares	364,406,529
3	SPP Shares (Fully Subscribed)	27,397,260
4	Total Post-Raise Shares	2,821,208,769

	Share Price	Market Capitalisation (AUD)
1	$0.845	~$2.384 billion
2	$0.730	~$2.060 billion

Even at 73 cents, Liontown is worth over 2 billion dollars. That is not distressed. That is not a penny stock. That is a strategic lithium player with government backing, full ownership of a world-class asset, and momentum turning its way!!!

The Bigger Picture

The narrative has changed. The government now owns part of Liontown. The company is fully funded. It owns a Tier One lithium asset in a stable jurisdiction, backed by offtake and with room to grow. Spodumene prices are already recovering in China and the market is asleep at the wheel.

The same company that was nearly acquired for 6.6 billion dollars in 2023 is now trading around a 2 billion dollar market cap with more backing, less risk, and better positioning for the next upcycle.