Good to see you are still monitoring and contributing to the DCN thread. Agree that resource is key to the share price.
I will add that @timbin4 has a point that there is a massive shift in investor sentiment on gold. I had been monitoring GP vs DXY (US$) negative correlation and last Friday GP rise along with DXY rise is something that is a bit out of the norm in the last two months that I had been monitoring the GP and DXY relationship: two months is not long enough to be considered a high degree of certainty but nevertheless it is interesting. The above chart show a strong (not 100% or 100% subjected to where the starting and ending points!) negative correlation between GP and DXY over the last 5 trading days until last Friday. Normally a strong upward move of DXY will cause a downward move of GP because GP is priced in US$. However that negative correlation was broken on Friday and broken in a significant manner.
My interpretation of the above is that the rise in US CPI of 8.6% against the expected 8.3% was the cause in this break in correlation. Below is my observations and deductions:
1) There is still some vestigial thought in investors mind (after months of indoctrination by US FED) that inflation is transitory or that inflation had peaked (as of Mar with 8.5%). Friday CPI figure of 8.6% had blasted the "inflation is transitory" thought. Investors had to reset their mindset to think that inflation is more permanent and therefore had to re-position their funds. Stock, bond, real estate are all very exposed, DXY (US$) may not stay high as trade deficit will become unfunded and EU will start to hike rate in July, US liquidity will become unhinged as US FED conduct QT, cryptos are no real safe haven as proven, ...... Commodities or perhaps PM have now become the only safe haven asset to park their money.
2) It had been observed that when stock market slides, it is the norm that GP will slide along with it. The positive correlation is attributed to the speculative investors having to sell their gold positions to cover for their margin calls. Given that US stock market slide quite significantly on Friday, GP on the contrary had move up significantly. Hence my deduction is that those speculative investors are out of their gold positions or perhaps they had now used cryptos as the safe haven of sort in their investment portfolio i.e. replacing gold. If so that is great as GP will not have to go down when the stock market slide and perhaps that may explain why gold had been holding up reasonably well against the slide of the stock market since early this year.
If the above is correct, then GP has now reverted to the safe haven status as of Friday. The rise in GP is very significant because it was against the backdrop of two negative factors (DXY upward move and stock market slide)!!! The momentum is now very much with GP upward move. Last Friday is perhaps the pivotal juncture when we may start to see GP behaving to our expectation(past few months had been very disappointing and frustrating) i.e. rise and rise!
"If DCN finally hit a production figure this qtr then I think they will get a lot of short term attention from the mkt and SP will bounce back into the 30s…. For how long that lasts is anyones guess."
However there is a very big IF!!! DCN and LJ had been very consistent in dishing out disappointments and I can only hope that they don't in this quarter. BTW LJ have a tranche of share options (2.8M) due in June 2023 and he had invested his own money for 1M of DCN shares @30c and I do hope that he does deliver this quarter and also in the coming quarters, if not for us but for his own sake!
