As I understand it, the main hope for this stock to head back over $1 into the wide blue yonder is for the hybrid conversion not to happen ever (ie they repay the banks the billion dollars or so that the hybrid securities are worth). I don't see any firm wording suggesting the hybrid swap won't happen, although I have no idea how shareholders would vote on that.
Assuming (really tenuous assumption) that this stock will one day be worth $4 again, a 90% dilution would make the stock worth $0.40, which is about what it's trading at today with 95% gearing and the commercial real estate market still depressed (possibly for the next few years).
I wouldn't be surprised if this stock headed back into the teens (Hybrid equity placement originally valued the company at 14c per share). There really does seem to be no justification for this massive surge in price.
For the record, I had shares at 45c which I bought last year, and I sold them at 48c a few days ago as I wasn't expecting them to reach that level again for a few years. I may buy again if the stock gets back into the low teens. I'm a lazy researcher too, so DYOR.
CNP Price at posting:
39.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
