the incredible value of cfe shares

as CFE continues to be pushed down by what seems like persistent bot trading, i relooked at the underlying value of CFE.

CASH on Hand:
It ahs been menitoned that we are currently holding about 40 mill in cash but as at 30 sept it was $25 million. Tony was quoted saying 40 mill but not sure where we found 15 mill - anyone?

Receiveables:

obviously the MCC case is what is all about here - foster's stockbroking guessed CFE may get an offer of 60 mill to sort the issue.

Sappes:

Glory have closed their raising OVERSUBSCRIBED- means we should be getting $32.5 million very soon. 10 mill in potenital future income.

Pinnacle:

we now own 100% of this. it will cost probably 20 mill plus to put some JORC resources on paper but given the size of our pruchase this has to be worth $100 million. potential for at least 2 major mines - future value possibly 1 billion plus.

AKI:

we own 25% of this. current value of our shares (at 35c)is equal to $44 million. this is claerly sought after so i see this as very much base value. also, potenial for $5 mill per annum royalty from 2013.

LRS/IGS/CXU/FEL/CHM:

Not sure of actual values of these holdings but think it is approx $20 million? Good news recently from LRS/CXU and CHM.

Leichardt:

Bought it for less than 10 million. replacement value of existing plant is in tens of millions. i am sure we could sell this tomorrow for $25 mill plus.

Various other hodlings and prospects (incl phosphate and Cape lambert South):

i have placed no vlaue on any of these, which is probably unfair on CFE.

MARAMPA:

This is obviously what is holding the share price back at the moment. no one knows what is worth as we have not made a sale. if you apply $1/Fe (680 x 28.2 resource)you get about $200 million. IOH and FMS have recently sold their resources for higher FE prices. This is obviously underpriced given the infrastructure advantages of Marampa. I am confident we could trade sale for at least $250 million. I think this is very conservative.


SO, Conservative Value (with 20% discount for uncertainties):

approx $450 million

conservative share price = $0.65 (688 mill on offer)

in conclusion - not worried about bot trading.