''All the experts predicted 20 years ago that it would get hotter and dryer ''
1. they got one part right - it's hotter - a lot hotter
2. 20 years ago? --------- maybe, predictions have gone back further than that - and in the main, have been more accurate than not
as far as wet goes - ------- let us know if you think it's a problem or not for the East Coast of Australia in the coming spring and summer season ---------
we shall see
on accuracy -
Early climate change predictions have shown varying degrees of accuracy over the long term. The evaluation of these predictions, particularly from climate models developed since the 1970s, reveals a generally positive track record, especially when considering the complexity and uncertainties inherent in climate science.
## Overview of Early Climate Models
Since the 1970s, climate models have evolved significantly in complexity and accuracy. Initial models, such as those developed by John Sawyer in 1973, predicted a warming of approximately 0.6°C between 1969 and 2000, which closely aligned with actual observed warming of about 0.51°C to 0.56°C during that period[2][3]. This early projection illustrates that even the simpler models were capable of making reasonably accurate predictions about future climate trends.
## Accuracy of Long-Term Predictions
A systematic evaluation of climate models, particularly those developed between 1970 and 2007, indicates that many of these models have been quite accurate in projecting global average temperatures. A study found that 10 out of 17 models closely matched observed temperatures, and when accounting for differences in carbon dioxide emissions and other factors, this number increased to 14[3][4].
Moreover, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also noted that projections made in its early reports, such as the 1990 assessment predicting a warming of about 1.1°C by 2030, have largely been validated by subsequent temperature records, with actual warming closely aligning with these projections despite various unforeseen global events[5].
## Challenges and Uncertainties
While many early models have performed well, they are not without limitations. The farther into the future predictions extend, the greater the uncertainty due to various factors, including emissions scenarios, natural climate variability, and the complexity of climate interactions[1][2]. Models are primarily designed to project trends rather than specific events, which can lead to discrepancies in short-term predictions.
Additionally, as climate models have become more sophisticated, they have also revealed a wider range of potential future warming scenarios, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in predicting long-term climate changes[4].
## Conclusion
In summary, early climate change predictions have generally proven to be accurate in the long term, with many models successfully projecting trends that align closely with observed data. However, the complexity of climate systems and the uncertainties involved mean that while models have improved, they are not infallible. Continuous refinement and evaluation of these models are essential to enhance their predictive capabilities for future climate scenarios.
