@frankycc - others - would you mind reviewing this please.
Keen for views on accuracy before i publish an updated valuation with article.
Aim is to try produce a range of probable outcomes.
Key Assumptions:
Q1 $50 spot at 62fe, Q2 $60 spot at 62fe
$23.50 USD all in cost
170m units produced
EBITDA margin 56.16%
Enterprise Value: $16.82b - Mkt Cap 14.44b +2.1b Cash - 4.47b Debt
Sector PE of 13
Dividend Payout of 60% (anyones guess)
USD $0.761
base case : Q3 / Q4 spot price $67.50 FE62
extreme bullish case : Q3 / Q4 spot price $80 FE 62
Key conclusions In AUD
Scenario 1 (yellow) is $0.81c EPS, 5.7 PE, 10.5% Dividend, 33.9% EV return, Share price of $10.51 if at PE of 13
Scenario 4 (bullish estreme) (blue) is $1.27 EPS, 3.7 PE, 16.4% Dividend, 53.1% EV return, Share price of $16.48 if at PE of 13
@frankycc - others - would you mind reviewing this please. Keen...
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Last
$17.43 |
Change
-0.060(0.34%) |
Mkt cap ! $53.66B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $17.56 | $17.84 | $17.21 | $174.0M | 9.955M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3000 | $17.41 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $17.46 | 25752 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 18/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FMG (ASX) Chart |