The investment case FOR Mesoblast, page-6

“Think left and think right and think low and think high. Oh, the things you can think up if only you try!”
Farewell Dr Seuss!

NEXT

Novartis and $505,000,000 from memory.

Worldwide the facts are each small Msc trial has achieved around 80% plus efficacy in Ards.

The largest randomised double blind control ever utilising MSC’s against a form of Ards- Covid-19 is about to read out. Day 76 but who’s counting?

The only fact we have is that if the trial had of continued to full enrollment we were likely to not reach the trial endpoint of 43% improvement in mortality over standard of care.

We have verbal indications that the first 90 patients far exceeded the 43% mark.

At 135 patients we were told to continue.

Then we are informed that the standard treatment of severe Covid cases altered significantly. That was for the next 45 patients. Now a total of 180 patients.

Then we also get data on another 43 patients taking the total to 223.

Novartis has signed up to assess the therapeutic benefit of Remestemcel-l in treating Ards. The data of the first 135 patients avoided a lot of experimental drugs in the treatment of Covid .

Novartis did not sign up based on a 43% improvement in mortality. They want safety and efficacy. They want enough data produced that enables them to establish a trial in all case Ards. I’m of the view that data on the first 135 will be sufficient.

We’ve already been told it works.

Shorters continually remind us we failed all 4 endpoints.
No we missed three.

But dearest shorters - the endpoint established by some beauracrat in a global pandemic has sweet FA to do with all case Ards. Novartis does not care at all about the 43% target.

The secondary endpoints are what Novartis wants. Boring things like are patients alive, off ventilators, discharged, organ damage , not back in hospital again.

Signing of the partnership deal is Mesoblast’s end game. Not, I repeat not , an EUA for Covid Ards. The pandemic is slowly easing. The gold is the global partnership, up front payments, royalties, milestone payments- the good stuff.

The market for Ards goes on forever .

well unless you have a dose of REM-l, then it goes away.

Bit like back pain going away but better.



I , Reg , give you naysayers fair warning , a heads up. I want to save you from a horrible mistake. We have more than 2.7 quarters of cash. Your time is nigh. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

Lol, at the Sinai trial most patients were discharged in under 10 days. Discharged!!!


All right, the back deal is done - now Ards results any tick of the clock. No investor conference call for Back. Somethings afoot Watson.

Reg