Iran is a highly polarised and somewhat fractured country that is controlled by the mad mullahs.
The mad Mullahs cement their "populist" nut job support just like most other populists do. They create a scape goat … in this case the US …. and have done so for decades. Trump's tweets are absolutely the wrong way to both manage the mad mullahs and reduce their support at the ballot box.
Iran is also in economic crisis and you can be absolutely sure that the mad mullahs are nailing it on the US.
Beyond the mad mullahs there are a range of pragmatists within Iran. Some pragmatists feel close to the Iranian Revolution and some feel disenfranchised or crushed by it.
You can be sure that Putin has several contingent back-up plans for managing the sometimes tense relationship between these two frenemies. I could certainly create a plan for engaging sensibly with Iran and so could many others. Trump on the other hand doesn't need a plan that beyond having the very best mobile phone for tweeting vitriol at the mad mullahs.
That said, Trump keeps on giving to the mad mullahs just as he does to Putin. Trump's complete mismanagement of the US - Iraq relationship is about to explode noting that the leader behind the scenes is now Sadr. The good news is that Sadr is nobody's vassal while the bad news is that he hates the US and is about to throw the US troops out of there. Additional bad news is the betrayal of the Iraqi Kurds by both Trump and one of their own factions following their independence referendum. It's complicated and Trump is out of his depth.
In Syria, Iran may be expected to fill a void left by Trump's decision to withdraw against the advice of his entire team and almost his entire officer corps. Battlefield betrayal is forcing the Kurds, who are threatened by Turkey to deal with Iran as an ultimate protector.
