The Iranians hate the US and the rest of us!, page-8

  1. Osi
    18,637 Posts.
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    Jambo

    Anything I say or anything the Russian side say will be wrong from several tangents due to layers complexity and contradiction on the ground.

    The premature US withdrawal is leading to fractures in North Syria and heavy handedness on some quarters.  Assad is an extremely polarising figure and his army is worn down.  Some people do want Assad to be their "protector" while others would take up arms against Assad at the drop of a needle.  Most don't want or need a "dear leader" styled "protector" of any description. 

    In any case  Assad's forces are in no position to stand against Turkish air power and force of arms without serious  Iranian and Russian backing. Don't forget that with over a thousand main battle tanks, several thousand armoured support vehicles and air support  the TSK could roll all its way down to the Euphrates in 48 hours through  sheer force of numbers (with technology).  The "token" US force prevented this outcome by waving its flag ….. it didn't need to do much more.

    The Kurds are only a minority in most of the north.  They were not seeking nationhood because they, as a minority, were never in a position to cement it.  They are  seeking a federative style of governance under which each population centre has a high  degree of autonomy under a Syrian national umbrella.

    Most observers would agree that Trump's latest actions are contradictory and rudderless. As  I see it Iran is continuing to misbehave.  There are ways to make Iran behave that fall short of the Israeli approach but it won't happen while Trump remains US President.

    cheers




    Last edited by Osi: 29/01/19
 
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