Hard to beat that Cap.I agree that gsw's Mexico scenario has a...

Hard to beat that Cap.

I agree that gsw's Mexico scenario has a lot of plausibility and really assists the task.

But you have added a couple of further dimensions that are also plausible - such as ED 'sitting on' the license approval and projects being held back by SBN pending resolution of recapitalisation/ownership details.

You could be pretty close to the mark - except for your idea that ED could be negotiating with SiYi. That's too left field for me!

The only other thing I disagree with is the suggestion that SiYi spat the dummy over SBL'a 'partnership' with ED.

I think it more likely that SiYi spat the dummy because, unheralded, they received the same letter as all the other potential partners received (including ED). This letter would have been seeking some sort of part sale/equity injection etc and SiYi would have been offended because they would have seen it cutting across their pre-existing Cooperation Agreement and, more recently, their memorandum of understanding, signed off in December.

Apart from that you could be pretty close.