This time, I focused more on the numbers.I used a simple linear...

This time, I focused more on the numbers.

I used a simple linear regression model to predict financial trends since I don't have much data, focusing on "Revenue (excluding Google)" and "EBITDA" over time. The model uses the month index as the independent variable and fits a linear relationship like this:




Then I got some forecast data for May 2024 to December 2025.





I pulled together the data from the financial reports from 2017 to 2023. Some data is missing because the reports switched to USD from 2020 onwards. Since some specific figures weren’t provided in USD, I left those out.



By the end of 2025, revenue and EBITDA are expected to be similar to FY18, with revenue forecasted at $241.97 million and EBITDA at $31.63 million. Initially, using a historical average P/E ratio of 66.49, we estimated an FY25 stock price of about $8.97 per share, based on an NPAT of $30 million. But, considering the shift to a more mature growth phase, we used a conservative P/E ratio of 20, resulting in a more realistic stock price estimate of around $2.70 per share.

Next, I looked at the stock price from a dividend angle. Assuming a dividend payout of 0.08 AUD per share and a typical 4% yield for mature companies, the estimated stock price was about 2 AUD per share.

To support this dividend, with 222.43 million shares, the total payout would be 17.79 million AUD (12.46 million USD). Assuming a 70% payout ratio, the required net profit would be 17.79 million USD. After factoring in taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortisation, the required EBITDA would be roughly 29.66 million USD.

These are just basic analyses and don't mean much, as I believe the actual data will be better than my predictions. The half-year report in August and the trading update in October will be key to seeing if the company can turn things around. I'll be keeping a close eye on both announcements.

Anyway, please DYOR. Cheers!