@stocking No precise timing, only rough estimates, since the outcomes (timing and quantum) are dependent on multiple moving parts.
The WOR case is back in court late Feb. If WOR want to get this issue out of the way then a settlement in the next 6 months is possible. If they want to fight it then it will draw on longer.
The US Case is subject to a preliminary hearing and JKL's success is very dependent on that outcome. If they are successful then one would think a settlement is likely, but if they aren't they made need to withdraw. The claim value here grows every day since the defendant is using the allegedly infringed upon IP, so it is close to A$500m now. If they settled the figure would no doubt be less but most likely A$100m+.
I try to keep the focus away from the outcome of these cases in my thesis, since they are so difficult to predict. Instead I'm focusing on the value of MML as that business in its own right has the potential to be worth multiples of the current market cap. What I can say for sure is if one of the cases are successful it is completely game changing as it will provide them a hoard of cash to fund further cases and achieve scale, not to mention the likely share price re-rate that would accompany it (Imagine the change in perception if JKL suddenly had a cash balance of $20m+, i think it would drive a fairly big re-rate). But investors also need to be aware that the cases may go against JKL - we are entirely reliant on the management team choosing wisely. I do however, have a lot of confidence in the team. The positive thing is that the current price is factoring in no success of any cases, so you are getting any potential upside for free.
