Trim,
Re: 2. A key difference between Jubilee and Fan is that the Jubilee reservoir is a channel complex
Not really. It has 2 sands with distinct OWC's, Upper & Lower. Upper Mahogany is a channel whilst LM is a Fan. So the field is basically a series of stacked Uppr Creta. Turonian aged Deepwater Turbidite fan lobe & Channel deposit.
It had its series of challenges with the 2 sands which r split into 6 sub sands & pre-prod in Nov'10 the Oper had to eliminate key uncertainities regarding flow potential frm the sands. So their plan was to drain LM2 & UM3 sand by 17 wells which incl 9 producers + 8 Inj. The avg net pay for the 9 producers is apprx 57m, whilst the Injctr's have an avg thknss of 36 & 55m. NSAI signed off on the reserves for 3 sands ie UM2, UM3 & LM2 in Dec'09 & Dec'10.
The only change was a slight rejig of the prob/poss figures, as more wells were drilled & field went onstream on 28Nov'10 as well as the POO used for the PV10 (net present value at 10% disc rate). Exxon offer simply prompted a change in PV10 figures.
So just to get yr heads around the numbers. JUA has 1P-470, 2P--675, 3P-1065 mmbbls gross from 6 sands.
As part of Phase-1 development in Dec'10, the 3 sands (ie UM2, UM3, LM2) were assigned 234 Proved, Probable-94 & Possible 115 mmbbls. Valuataion was at USD79.70/bbl giving a PV10 of US1530m, 563mil & 470mil for KOS net share of this ie 56 mmbbls-1P, 22 & 26 mmbbls respectively.
KOS Dec'09 valuation was done at US59.60/bbl.
The field now has produced over 5 years now with Phase-1 & phase-1A ie 17 + 8 new wells (incl injctr).
Note FAR had initially shown the net pay from the first 5 Jubilee wells when FAN was discovered. This should not have included Mahogany 3, 4 & 5 wells as these wells are not part of the Unitised Jubilee field. They r in fact part of the MTA Development in the southeast block. KOS-TUL-APC have varying equity in Jubilee & MTA. I think MTA was approved recently by the local authorities as there was a squabble on a certain portion of that block 2b relinquished. Anyways that Jubilee, the largest discv of 2007 & 150 mmbbls later.
Cairn have clearly alluded to 3Dseis remapping across BEER & drilling the first well at a diff location in 1 of their transcripts last year. I think this well was drilled on the throat of the feeder channel & hence a low net to gross oil pay, ie 29 from 500m. So in my view a future well/s should b drilled where the data from the latest 3Dseis shows chances of finding oil. Key unknown obviously is the net pay. So lets just stick with P50 OIIP of 950 mmbbls until more wells & reprocessing is done on FAN. BEER sort of pokes up-north into the neighbours paddock where its called as Baobab. I think its on a presentation somewhere.
Anyways that's the long & short of it. I'd rather let the company unravel its findings. Someone has to sign off on those figures & they are better qualified to do so after reviewing most info from the the company. So no more on this.
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Notes on WAfr drilling :
- Chinguetti turns 10 in the last week of Feb.
- KOS appraising Tortue-2 in Mauritania. Good luck to them as this straddles 2 countries. Size is huge.
- Anadarko spudded Paon-5A appraisal well in Ivory coast this month using the Bolette Dolphin
- ENI continues the development drilling in Ghana's 3rd new oilfield at Sankofa
-TEN FPSO now south of Madagascar, should b on site by March & will rake in more royalties for GNPC. Same number of wells planned to drain 250 mmbbls oil.
Ghana's first oil field at Saltpond produces a small amount apprx 250 bopd. This was b4 Jubilee produced in Nov'10 with TEN scheduled for mid-2016 & Sankofa in 2017/18. Royalties galore for the local pollies who can also thank the World Bank for acting as a guarantor for meeting their 10% share of costs worth USD 700mil in Sankofa. There's always a white knight from WB or IMF out there with a cheque book.
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If Cairn really want to do a mine's bigger then yours, then in my view once the DoC is done and 1P-2P booked for SNE, they could use the above figures from Jubilee from Phase-1, 1A & overall field size to herald their find in Senegal. Isn't rocket science its all there on the public domain or they can chat up their partners in Morocco, ie Kosmos.
Other WAfr projects to compare SNE with are TEN with its 245 mmbbls oil & 350 bcf gas. (31 to 37 API oil).
Alternately they could use Baobab in Ivory coast with its 23 API Cretacaous oil with 2P-191.5 mmbbls or as a last straw Chinguetti with its 2P-53 mmbbls, 2C-24 mmbbls.
Tortue is pure gas, so divide their TCF by 6 as a ballpark. That's the long & short of this thread.
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