Hi Jsoho,
I apologise for the late reply, as for estimates I believe that we will see a significant upgrade in time with the FAN's. CNE is being very unreasonable to FAR currently in not releasing a lot of the data and as such of course we are working to RISC upgrades which will delight some holders as it is I guess a way for FAR to get around the tight hole.
As for my numbers, I am working to estimates of where I think we will see the FAN's end up, not STOOIP but recoverable.
As for my estimates, you state 40x8km, however that is just for FAN-1. My base estimate for the FAN's in total is taking into account the 3 FAN's including the Central, Southern and FAN-1 or beer as it is called now, I arrive at an estimate of 60x10 KM2 in including all 3;
- FAN-1 @ 40x10 = 400 m2
- Central FAN @ 10x10 = 100 m2
- Southern FAN's @ 10x10 = 100 m2
To a grand total of 60x10 = 600 m2.
I don't believe this is exuberant. You could argue that the Central & Southern FAN's are actually larger than 10 x 10. (I would argue each around 12x10 but by the by) what I under estimate there - you could deduct from the Beer section to arrive at around the same total.
You will note that the FAN's don't overlap, i.e at my base estimate I have noted a continuous 29M of net pay across the whole 60x10 m2 to arrive at a base estimate of 4B Barrels, however we can now see that there is well beyond the original 29M net pay visually. The issue here is that we are under tight hole and back to my previous note, CNE is withholding information. FAR has updated the diagrams in light of their independent RISC analysis and more detail will come in due course.
You will also note that the bottom green section in my estimates is at more than double the size of the previous top two green sections (i.e this means that the beer section is looking to be more than the prior 29m net pay on its own) as depicted below;
View attachment 143451
(again I would argue that in fact one of the sections is looking to be upwards of 60M net pay by itself - again this is via using a ruler and measuring the screen at massive zoom and I would welcome your own interpretation here).
On their own, we know that not all of the FAN's were able to be developed commercially, at least in the case of the upper FAN's however per the note from FARJOY - "The effect of SNE-1 will be to change everyone's perception of the order of development (the shelf first instead of last), the cost of development (the shelf will be about two-thirds of the cost of the fans)" The beauty of the SNEball effect as I call it, is that the JV can deem SNE commercial and then via the fact that anything within tie back that is over 75MMBLS is then deemed commercial look to develop the FAN's at their leisure down-track, or add an FPSO at the appropriate timing when required;
View attachment 143444
The area I noted as an issue with the estimates is a complete lack of information around porosity, recoverability, saturation and shrinkage. We have no info here so it is unfortunately a guess using SNE which is obviously an issue.
Some would argue that we will see significant dilution to ascribe the valuations that I talk to. My recommendation would be to start learning about debt funding of commercial projects, forward sales etc. Capital raises and dilution is not the only way forward. This said, I don't think we will even get that progressed - FAR will be taken out and hopefully not too early.
Never the less, it wasn't that long ago that my lofty predictions around SNE were deemed over enthused - within hours we saw the seismic upgraded to what made my estimates look reasonable if not conservative based on the seismic upgrade alone let alone the increase in the areal extent of SNE, I eagerly await the next chapter of FAR unveiling the RISC estimates.
IMHO, DYOR etc
P.S you don't have to wonder as to the intentions of the down ramper's at this stage.
(20min delay)