OK Aqua, in that modification you've got another 2 billion lopped off SNE.
But you're still using 36m as an average across the whole field based on SNE1 alone and as we know that the blocky sands dip away that's just not justified. This is where it gets tricky as we just don't have the information. I have previously, in my "played down" speculative translations on the sheet divided the area up into 20/25m sections and made guesstimates for the same in arriving at possible breakdowns for various recoverable resource outcomes generated in the sheet, but the sheets are not dependent on these breakdowns so don't need an extra column (they already accommodate various resource outcomes). The areal breakdowns used total 105 sq km and with the latest published information I am happy to increase this total to 125sq km.
Incidentally if the blocky sands were to stay up in the oil zone over the whole central structure I would have no worries about a billion barrel outcome, but the information that we have is that they don't. We do know the thinner sands are more problematical and that is why your 36m cannot be used as an average over the productive area in the way that you have done it (and why the RISC analysis comes up with a mid case of around 470mb and not a billion).
pj
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