the last two days of meo explained

So I've just gone over all the posts for the day on HC and found some good arguments amongst them.

Here is my simple empirical data explaining and backing my argument for why the past two days have frankly been an anomaly for MEO:


Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
03 Aug 2009 0.570 26.67% 0.585 0.465 54,152,587
31 Jul 2009 0.450 8.43% 0.455 0.420 18,804,302
30 Jul 2009 0.415 -1.19% 0.425 0.410 4,758,778
29 Jul 2009 0.420 0% 0.435 0.405 8,393,133
28 Jul 2009 0.420 -3.45% 0.435 0.415 10,740,717


Now note the high on 31 July of .455 and the close of .45. I think you'll find I posted around 3.30pm(ish) that afternoon (Friday if you click on my name to check for proof)a prediction at the time to my fellow holders that the resistence holding back MEO ALL WEEK which was the 1.5 million or so volume of sellers which had stayed on the depth screen acting as a short term ceiling was looking like it may finally be about to be broken.

It turned out my hopeful prediction came to fruition friday by close with MEO closing at .45 and the bulk of the sellers being "taken out" at that level.

This was simply the short term catalyst for the next move up as I and others predicted.

With the .45 ceiling gone the stock did what we thought it would do Monday. Where it all went wrong for me Monday (and I say this as a holder who as many of you all know is "all in" on MEO as I write)is the fact that instead of going to .48 or .50 at best as it has on many similar days in this past rally in terms of a usual percentage rise for this stock, it rocketed through very little resistence.

I'm not saying it was the lack of resistence to blame, though you could argue that was 50 percent of the reason why. I am saying it was the sheer volume involved, the likes of which as some have pointed out, MEO has not experienced before.

Now if you ask me why the volume nearly trippled from 18 mill Fri to 54 Mill Mon, there is one simple answer also: short term opportunity with an emphasis on short.

Whether it was Hot copper members/retail public acting en masse (it has been most popular stock on here last few days I've noted) or insto's getting involved or both, does not concern me so much.

The fact it did overheat on Mon on the upside does not in itself concern me either, and nor does the fact the profit taking was more elevated Tuesday than usual after a rally.

I am simply pointing out that they are a direct function of each other.

In other words if MEO went to .48 Mon on 20 mill volume, I would put my house on it that it would have travelled more gently onto .52 or so on Tuesday on similar volume as it has in the past rallys to date.

It is the fact that MEO's normal baby steps turned into a giant leap Mon, that threw this normal pattern in the rally thus far into disarray. It was simply the short termers and traders, and I'm specifically referring to day traders (week/month holders I don't mind so much as a shareholder) that were responsible.

I'm not telling them to keep out of our stock, I'm just saying they are simply what caused what should have been a 10 percent MEO spike Mon to turn into a 26 percent rise, and MOST IMPORTANTLY THE 14.91 PERCENT SUBSEQUENT FALL TODAY, that went hand in hand with the increased volume and price rise. Further proof of this is the 55,835,165 volume Tuesday which just happens to be the same as the spike mon. Coincidence? I think not.

I just wanted to clearly articulate why I am positive the last two days have unfolded as they have, and to reassure any fellow even semi-short term holders that fundmentally nothing has changed, and technically the stock got the clean out it needed today after the 'punters' got on board monday.

I'm pretty sure the punters were dealt with pretty severely today, and I'm sure they'll be back and I don't begrudge them for a second as I do it from time to time in different stocks. I'm not saying it's rally time again Wednesday, I'm just saying we can get back to either consolidation around this level (where we should have been without Monday's spike) or more likely moving up in a somewhat more orderly fashion through the fifty's and possible sixties by the end of August.

Of course the stock could spike to 80 cents or a dollar in the near future and I'm not saying it will for sure, i'm just saying there is too much up side for a pull back of any providence given the farm-in near term prospects, and the near-term work coming out of the 3D mapping as I write.

My target remains 2-4 dollars by the 1st Q 2010, or whenever their drill hopefully hits that mother-load 9.5 TCF (and hopefully rising in estimate as I write) gas column/field, which just happens to ajoin the 5 TCF Chevron-owned-Wheatstone.