Right now, oil supply is only just keeping up with demand - and more and more demand keeps getting pumped into the system by East Asian growth.
The key issue is those big discoveries of the 1970s are now 25 years old, and that means they are going to the tail of the decline curve.
Look at Australia - Marlin, Kingfish and Tirrawarra are all shadows of the former selves, and nothing we have found replaces that (Tirrawarra used to do 20 000 bopd. All the new Cooper discoveries add to 7000 bopd, tops).
