Yes the stock may go to below $1 with a focus on short term and...

Yes the stock may go to below $1 with a focus on short term and all the other economic announcements that will be made over the next few days. Their impact will bring new emotions to the market and continue to stoke the irrational behaviour (fear) we are seeing.

If the belief is so strong the mining boom is at an end why is FMG still at $3.50 (NTA 1.20 and interest cover of only 5). Why is IFE at 0.29 when they haven't even started mining let alone have any idea what their cash cost will be.

What do we know?
- BLY has an NTA of 1.65 and will make a profit in the next 6 months so the NTA will increase.
- They increased the debt levels but have a low cost of debt with a 16x cover.
- They have flagged a change and that they are focussed of managing the change
- Gold and copper prices are holding well, where the bulk of their exposure is
- They play with the majors where 81% of the revenue is earned.
- They are liquid, working capital was an issue but as stated in the webcast yesterday they consciously increased inventory (leading to an increase in AP). It was further sated in Q&A the WC had improved and is expected to contiune improving.
- Their product pipeline has flattened after a drop and there is uncertainty of where to from here, only 26% of rev
- Rig utilisation is stable.

What are my views
- Mining will slow but not disappear (juniors will face bigger problems but will not impact BLY) thus I expect a slower growth for BLY but do not yet foresee losses.
- I am happy with the state of their balance sheet, will be even better with WC improving.
- The management team was open and honest and has provided me with their views of the risks and how they intend dealing with them
- almost 20% of the issued capital has changed hands in the past 2 days indicates a lot of speculation/panic

Happy to hold BLY for the next 2-3 years