Before Ungani they were mostly operating off the assumption...

Before Ungani they were mostly operating off the assumption there would be Yulleroo style gas sands at the Ungani location and depth. I assume mostly based on nearology. Commercial oil at Ungani changed that assumption. Early on, due to it's depth, Rafael was certainly considered as a prospect that could go either way (0.5tcf was an early estimate if gas prone). Further geological modeling has them concluding it's likely to be in the oil phase and that can be somewhat supported objectively by looking at oil shows at a similar depth in Ungani North (although it's geologically distinct and doesn't really prove anything one way or the other). However there were also gas shows deep in Ungani North so it's entirely possible there is also gas deep in Rafael. I would assume the secondary objective at the very bottom of the drill in the Pillara/Pillara equivalent might be more likely to be gas if indeed it is a porous reef. I would operate on the assumption both oil and gas are possibilities. We haven't seen much in the way of gas caps in the area but a lot of that probably has to do with the oil source and less than ideal seals. Rafael has a much deeper oil source and a much better seal, I wouldn't rule it out entirely.