Nothing is guaranteed - it's all about weighing probabilities and managing risk, using reference points.
So you have resistance from the top of the channel, in the low 70's,
support @ 50MA and 20EMA together @ 67.5, but an unfilled gap below that.
Then you have the Nickel chart; note that it has come right back down to the level it just spiked up from.
On balance, I wouldn't go heavy on a position here.
I'd feel better if the gap was filled, and the next thing would be a successful break above the channel.
That's it. Gives you something to work with.
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