Given I'm still partially involved with the RE sector as a semi-retired consultant, I speak to agents in most areas residential and rural on a daily/weekly basis. In short what they are telling me is that 2023 has been a year where the residential market (generally speaking) has run hot and cool, almost on a bi-monthly basis connected to IR rises - more or less. In other words, the rising IR's are having an extremely hard time attempting to overthrow the massive supply deficit - exacerbated by high immigration, high employment and inflation. Now I see that Queensland has doubled the first homeowners grant to $30,000, heralding higher prices for that State, given the majority of said $30,000 will end up in the pockets of vendors (so a counterproductive measure IMO). This cycle from the Bears case does not look promising for a significant pullback any time soon - notwithstanding someone dropping a nuclear bomb or mortgage rates (via the Reserve) rise beyond 10%; or more depending on the strength of the supply deficit.
So, with all the moving parts in this battle royale between the supply deficit and IR's, who amongst us can predict the future trend? - Not I. Although, I do err on the side of the supply deficit effect through to the end 2024, at least. And quite possibly beyond. But who knows, given the World is in unprecedented times; economically, geopolitically, environmentally and technologically.
