meerkat wrote: "it neither gets it 'ALWAYS' right nor 'ALWAYS'...

meerkat wrote: "it neither gets it 'ALWAYS' right nor 'ALWAYS' gets it wrong - but my experience is that it's more right than wrong by a long way...."

That statement tells me everything about your experience in knowing how markets react. Have you heard of the term "Fear and Greed"? It has been proven since Adam wore short pants that greed drives investors in bull markets and fear drives them in bear markets. It's human emotion and whilst emotion plays the vital role, markets will always be inefficient.