Let’s break this down properly.1. Market Cap Projection You're...

Let’s break this down properly.

1. Market Cap Projection

You're scoffing at a move from $60 million to $6 billion, but you're ignoring the key drivers that can lead to those valuations.

Look at Butcherbird (Element 25). They went from under $20 million to over $300 million on the back of manganese DSO news. Their grades were around 30 percent. ESR has already reported surface manganese above 40 to 50 percent DSO-grade, which is significantly higher.

If ESR confirms continuous, shallow, high-grade ore over a 1.7km by 1.1km footprint at around 5 to 10 meters depth, even a modest strip ratio could point to a deposit in the 100 to 200 million tonne range. You don't need a billion tonnes to hit a billion-dollar valuation if the ore is shallow, DSO-grade, and located in a low-CAPEX jurisdiction like Timor.

2. Ore Pricing and Revenue

You're quoting magnesium pricing. ESR is targeting manganese, not magnesium. They're entirely different elements.

Manganese ore with grades between 44 and 50 percent DSO is selling in the range of 200 to 250 US dollars per tonne FOB. Depending on battery-grade demand, spot pricing can go higher.

ESR’s ore is direct shipping, meaning it sells to market with minimal processing. That’s a huge advantage.

3. What's Realistic

Let’s say ESR defines 100 million tonnes at 45 percent plus manganese, DSO quality. Selling at 230 Australian dollars per tonne, even with a 10 percent NPV margin, that’s 2.3 billion AUD in project value.

With 2 billion shares on issue, that’s \$1.15 per share on conservative assumptions. If results exceed expectations with 250 million tonnes plus and consistent DSO grades, your 6 billion valuation doesn’t look so crazy.

They aren’t just guessing from photos. They’re about to start a 90-hole RC drill campaign backed by the largest manganese exporter in the world.

You may think 5 to 10x is a reasonable target. Fair enough. But if the resource hits big, the market won’t wait. A shallow, high-grade, scalable manganese discovery tied to the battery supply chain will rerate fast.

Good luck. But don’t underestimate what’s unfolding here.