The market will start to look at Esr very differently, page-72

Let me be clear: this is a forward outlook based on assumptions and conservative modelling, not a resource statement im just a hack.

Using publicly visible mapping, surface intercepts, and drill targeting density, I’ve crunched some numbers on the Ira Mira prospect — and even with modest inputs, the scale becomes impossible to ignore.

Assumptions Used (Conservative by design):

Footprint: 800m x 4,500m (based on visible drill targeting and outcrop alignment)

Mineralised Hit Rate: 30% (i.e., 7 out of 10 holes expected to miss)

Depth / Thickness: 4m consistent Mn zone (starting near surface, down to 40–60m intercepts)

Average Mn Grade: 43% (split between 40%–45% range)

Bulk Density: 3.5 t/m³ (standard for high-grade Mn ore)

Market Price: US\$5.25/dmtu (CIF China for \~44% Mn lump DSO)

Volume and Tonnage Estimate:

Total Area

800m x 4,500m = 3,600,000 m²

Mineralised Area (30%):

3,600,000 x 0.30 = 1,080,000 m²

Ore Volume (4m thick):

1,080,000 x 4m = 4,320,000 m³

Tonnes of Ore:

4,320,000 x 3.5 =15,120,000 tonnes

Contained Manganese Estimate:

Mn metal @ 43% grade:

15,120,000 x 0.43 = 6.5 million tonnes of Mn

Dry Metric Tonne Units (dmtu):

6.5 Mt = 650 million dmtu

Gross In-Ground Value:

650M dmtu x US\$5.25 =

US\$3.41 billion

Key Notes:

The hit rate of 30% (i.e., 7/10 holes missing) is deliberately conservative, with a 43% Mn average grade.

Depth assumption (4m) is well below several global DSO project averages that report >6m thickness.

Mapping-based footprint was calculated via electronic scaling from drill plans and outcrop overlays.

No processing costs, infrastructure assumptions, or recovery losses are included — this is gross in situ value only.

Conclusion:

Even with conservative figures — low hit rate, modest depth, modest grade — the forward-looking in-ground value for Ira Mira exceeds US$3.4 billion.

This does not include Sica, Manapa, or potential continuity extensions across the licence package.

If grades and continuity are confirmed by the drill bit, this has the potential to rival or exceed existing high-grade coastal manganese projects.