Talk about the bad news for TRF with the overseas investor pulling out from IFE following Rudd's Super Tax. From memory that meant no $30 million or whatever was being provided.
It was NOT good news as some have spun. It means despite being 20% free carried TRF also has to come up with the money needed to maintain their equity in IFE whenever IFE issues shares to raise money for the project.
What interests me, considering the low valuation the market is now attaching to the project via TRF and IFE, is despite us being told time and time again what a "premium product" the Wilcherry Hill magnetite is, no company has made a bid for TRF to get control of TRF and so the project and no other overseas investor has apparently offered to finance IFE. Why not, considering what a "premium product" we have been told IFE has? Certainly no announcement has been made if any offers have been made, unless I missed it.
With a regular flow of revised dates, key details not finalised, capital needed not raised, DFS not finalised (I'll believe the new 14th. December date when I see it) - will it show the robust project we have all been led to believe for so long - and Management complaining about low share prices but having an inability to excite the market about the merits of the project, I think it was prudent of me to consider the implications should this project not go ahead.
It will be a disaster for IFE shareholders while TRF will be hammered to around 10 to 15 cents imo based on the value of its ROL holding assuming no further TRF shares are issued. Maybe even lower initially, because credibility will be shot to pieces.
So I see the downside in TRF being about 30 cents or so from here while I still believe the upside is potentially in the dollars.
On that basis, after all the revised dates, delays, vagueness etc. even if the project only has a 30% to 50% chance of going ahead, the risk to reward ratio still appeals to me.
But an investment now in TRF is for me no longer an investment with money I don't expect to lose. To me it is now very much a calculated gamble where in my assessment I am now allowing for the realistic possibility of the share price getting smashed like in the 2008 GFC.
TRF Price at posting:
44.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
