Thadius, good post... I too was told far below the 30 min figure approx. 1 month ago at 22 million. So looks like housing needs to be built from scratch and we missed out on ready made housing... probably government grabbed for more government housing- dam it.
Port Adelaide access looks to be a done deal in the ST... however to my understanding if a LT contract locked into only allowing small ships that will be over double shipping costs PLUS a HUGE negitive to the bottom line. So we need and wait and see on the deatils. Will be looking over closely Ian...
Shipping can mean up to 30 million dollar difference to the bottom line per MT of Ore. It is HUGE and a current unknown.
I think many LT holders will agree that the small ship route is painful and has been factored in for the first 18 months already. I am hoping he does not sign ANYTHING that commits the use of these ships for over 2 years... 3+ years will be a killer. Preferably we want access to LARGE ships in the first year yet very unlikely to happen from what I hear. Ian has stated he looked into all the options and tried his best to get onto LARGE ships- it seems like a very difficult task in the 1st 2 years of operation.
Yet even at larger shipping fees we still can make greater than 30 Mil per MT of Ore... yet naturally bottom line jumps dramtically when we load onto LARGE ships. It is very important for this detail in the coming DFS. I somewhat dismiss Ian's notion of being disapoointed if he does not achieve over 50 Mil in profitability per MT of Ore. As I cannot see it happening with SMALL shipping costs unless Ore goes UP more. At current rate and small ships we are looking around 40 Mil profitability. Yet all the details are unclear and that a rough calculation till I analyse the DFS.
Port access limitations and arrangements have a lot to do with this... Buyer paying the Shipping- not on huge small ship costs. We will wear a fair portion, so i do not believe this statement from Ian that Buyer will pay. As the huge cost must affect the Manufacturer and suppliers profits. The buyer will always pay around market price or get elsewhere.
The arrangement with the marketing firm is a little unclear, yet they give 95% of the money upfront before delivery to my understanding. Not sure what their commission is- hope nowhere near 5%. Otherwise far more prudent to seek our own buyers. Another few million in savings. middlemen can get 0.5-1.5% to get the best deals, yet this firm is paying 95% upfront, so they will be asking for more I suggest. We are being DONE if it is 5%. 2% is a fairer call...95% upfront... 3% on delivery OK- done deal.
A fair few areas need to be HIT in the DFS that many are looking forward to having cleared UP. Ian can personally offer very little insight to date, as he is still logistically working out many of the deatils.
TRUE Profits before TAX is a BIG one to make clear to investors without mucking around with the confusion of shipping costs. Simply state targets in DFS has been my suggestion- worst case, best case, medium for Yr 1, 2, 3 from the true loading DATE.
I speculate June 2011 now from my conversations although Ian is admanant on Q2 2011... I think it will be a hard ask. Working through logistics and setting up work crew- construction, contracts, etc and working effeciently to load on the ships in 4 months seems highly unlikely IIMO... 6-8 months is more likely IMO.
Most important for me is getting the Ore on the ship at the best possible price right now. Hoping Ore prices continue to sore then we will be thoroughly 'In the money'.
As calculated an equivant project that is producing now is valued close to 300 Mil on average. Now depends on certain factors yet most importantly our profitability and remaining life of the mine.
My understanding is we have many years of the High quality Ore then we deal with the much larger Hercules mine. Anyway looking forward to a clear and concise DFS to get some large holders back in thus double bag the Coy in the ST. Towards loading on ships I am bullish on a revaluation of closer to 300Mil, if not more based on progress and profitability and mine life, etc.
Overall risk-reward wise both IFE at 90c and TRF at 45c are still a bargain.
TRF has asset value near 60c that can offload now... yet a fair portion going forward is reliant on the Whilcheery project with IFE. Gold, mine etc is simply icing.
Few hurdles to overcome, yet the rewards are their for investors beating on a successful projects. It will hopefully happen sooner rather than later---- yet it will happen.
The DFS may be the catalyst to ST gains... or may not be a positive as we would like. Anyway we will find out next week.
Cheers JAY
TRF Price at posting:
42.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
