I don't suggest at any time that VA will grow bigger than Qantas. VA is just approaching 100 aircraft whereas Qan is just around the 300 mark, so that's a no brainer really - it's just not going to happen me thinks. Though, by the by, I can recall when Qan was only an international airline with a fleet of only about 24 Boeing 747's and that was thought quite prudent in those days. It was not allowed to even be a domestic carrier at all when I was a kid, so it's grown well from 24 to 300 planes. But look at it's turnover, it's 3 to 4 times VA and that too is not going to change. That's also why Qan has great upside too in it's price, but I wouldn't buy it for a few years as they have some massive hurdles to overcome, including international loss making and massive funding requirements to update it's large fleet. Also the CEO fighting with his entire workforce year in year out's a bit of a drama too. I kinda think it a bit funny that while Qan closes loss making O/seas routes VA has created a virtual network and you can now book more o/seas destinations with VA than Qan. That's pretty smart of Borghetti I think.
So is $2.25 achieveable? (IMO) Perhaps not soon but in the not too distant future, if VA is careful and maintains it's cost containment. Qan has been as high as $7 mark at one stage during Dixons "we have to sell it to private consortium" era. Also VA jumped about 50c in a day some years back when Branson dropped in to say hello, and it was speculated that he had some plans for VA. So anything is possible.
At 43 cents the market cap is still very, very low and providing the airline is run properly, the upside has to be huge. But it all comes down to how the future plays out for VA. Share investing is after all, just a morally higher form of gambling really, at the end of the day.
As for the free kick that Qantas gave VA I agree with Borghetti that the dollar value is small (single digit millions - I think he put it). But perhaps the best leg-up was that many QAN Bus. Class pax got a chance to taste the VA Bus. product, and at that level it's all about networking and status.
Borghetti is removing the BMW/Lexus verses Ford/Holden thing by upgrading the airline, and with VA Bus. Class tickets 30% cheaper than QAN, then many business people will fly VA Business Class in lieu of Qan domestic class, because many Govt and private sector managers use the lounges but still fly cattle class. They can now have the Lounge networking at VA and also afford to fly in a Business Class seat - great kudos! This may also impact well on VA's bottom line in the future.
It's all good...for investors that is..
best wishes...
VAH Price at posting:
43.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
