the michael kiernan factor , page-13

Hi Guyvol,

Below is a series of 3 email I posted on MON thread at end on April before mar-08 quarterlty report was issued by MON. The situation is ALMOST unchanged:

"EMAIL 1
One thing you have to remember is that MON is still the same company it was at end of Oct 07 when the shocking quarterly for June 07 came out except since then:
(a) MON has an agreement to buy Mt Magnet and has partly paid for it.
(b) MON has sold Minjar mine for cash and equity, as the mine was surplus assets for MON's future goals.
(c) the Mt Ida project has been geared up to produce higher grade gold which should become evident in future cashflows, results yet to be confirmed.
(d) Riverina mine has been pushed forward as it was originally proposed to come on board I think about 1st quarter 2008, yet to be confirmed.
(e) Davyhurst processing plant has been operational and all problems should have been ironed out.
(f) Iron ore exploration potential.
(g) SP is at about 40-45% (ie about 90cps then & 37cps now).

You have to remember that for MON to get production in process quickly back in July 2007 chose the Walhalla mine which did NOT have the gold grade from resource/reserve estimates (note that reserve estimates are NOT a guarantee of grade). The Jun 07 quarterly said that Walhalla had a few months to go before moving onto next mine. Note that the mining processing could be stopped but what would happen to all staff and contracts while Riverina was being prepared and MON would have to re-ramp up production again. All forecasts are just that, FORECASTS, imagine if you had to forecast how many cups of coffee you would sell in a Sydney coffee shop that you are starting up from scratch.

In summary, MON had a bit of a hick up with Walhalla, but all mining companies have problems, especially at start-ups and ramping up.

The value of a company is NOT the SP, and from time to time there is too much hype in a stock (counting your eggs before they are hatched) or fear and over selling. MON is in a better position now than it was 6 months ago except that SP is 37cps and NOT 90cps.


EMAIL 2
Further to post above, I don't understand how posters compare MON to VRE??
(1) MK has a large stake in MON.
(2) MK has connections with cash
(3) MON has sister companies like TTY & IRL which can help out at time of need with cash, especially during credit crunch.
(4) MK will pull all strings to make sure MON is sucessful.


EMAIL 3
Further to post above, I forgot to highlight the following:
(i) some dilution has occured due to extra capital raising at 50cents which wasn't in MK original plan, but does not significantly change any forecast EPS for MON (long-term view).
(ii) MK was able to raise about 2/3 of capital from rights issue even though SP was trading below 45cps in last week of offer and with credit crunch.
(iii) TTY participated in 50cents capital raising and there is about 1/3 of rights at 45cps still to be alloted, MON directors have 3 months maximum to complete. Looks like to me that if MK is correct with MON forecasts then TTY will benefit.

I hold MON/TTY.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
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