thor - not interested in any completion here, but am always happy to have some robust discussion...
I appreciate that you started off with your mirror reverse theory , and I think I understand the gist of all of that, but sorry - its something that doesn't fit my line of logic.....
As far as I am concerned the current upward trend will continue with the normal variations, and come down when it decides to do so.... the number 2000 is inconsequential to it all imo.......and also imo it really doesn't matter what calculations, or chart constructions we make to extrapolate into the future....
I am happy to watch price movement , volumes , financial announcements and company announcements and to observe the markets reactions to these announcements - all of these can be a good indication of the markets mood....
and as you have probably observed I put trend bands on everything.
using the pe and roe compared with the base interest rate is a common method of establishing an approximate price level for a stock or index, do you agree or disagree with that - of course there are other factors, but to me that's the starting point
the other factors you mention are "psychological, mathematical and behavioral measures" - yes the hype and euphoria is a common thing in over extended markets, (the dot com boom and prior to the GFC) likewise the doom and gloom as in the GFC led to a very much undervalued market...... I am not predicting anything, but the only comment I make is that trends quite often go on for a lot longer than most people think ....
I think we probably do have a lot in common here - except that I am partly sitting on the fence and watching
"My measures says the S&P is over stretched and that there will quite a correction" - I have to say thor, any body can make broad statement like that and be correct, since there are no timelines or price levels given.....
would you like to do as i have done and elaborate on how you calculate the current value of the indices and be specific as to how much you think it is it is overvalued..... it could make n interesting comparison....
