US$100 million would be just for the upfront sign on. Another Us$500million minimum for the combined milestone payments as commercialisation steps are ticked off. That as a minimum would equate to ~ 12cps distribution. Who knows what the total face value of the deal would look like if EXCLUSIVE is the key term . Can you imagine Roche would even want to share this with the competition.? Totally Dominating the Her2 segment might be their preference. Madness the market can’t factor that something like this is coming. Illogical you could buy a share for 12 c, and within two years receive your money back fully and still own the share outright.
Generally from what I have seen, and what the analyst at Roth Capital uses, is a 15% royalty on all future revenues and zero contribution for Ph3 costs by us . The 50% royalty sharing agreements would typically involve both partners splitting the Ph 3 ... that gets very costly. A fast track designation by the FDA could see sales coming a lot sooner than the market envisages... ie, the vaccine gets approved for sale before completion of Ph3 because it is already deemed safer and more effective than current SOC chemo, and unethical for those in need to miss out.
Whilst short sighted profiteers are cashing in on the latest run, there’s always a buyer on the other side of the trade. Only takes a few wanting to join the Top 10 for keeps to put a floor under the price.
IMU Price at posting:
12.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
