Good post as usual Eel. I think you have read it pretty well but...

Good post as usual Eel. I think you have read it pretty well but i do think it is important to be balanced about the pros and cons of sticking around under Ceph control.

For example, say they close the offer around 70-80%, there would be a LOT less liquidity in the stock. If you hold more than a trivial number of shares you would basically be locked in to ongoing ownership unless / until Ceph comes back with a mop up bid. No guarantee they will or in what timeframe -- as time passes, maybe something happens to Ceph in another market that reduces M&A capability or appetite or makes this less of a priority.

In Australia, the experience of mop up bids is mixed -- sometimes the price is higher, sometimes lower. Depends on what happens in the company and the equity market in between. You might roll the dice and win, but there are no guarantees.

I also think it is fairly like AAH will become even more of a one-trick pony (ie ART621). Hard to imagine Ceph will want to fund new R&D out of AAH when it can capture 100% of the benefits from R&D back in the mother ship. I'm not talking about existing candidates -- they will continue in AAH -- but I can't imagine they will spend money to develop new ones.