Agreed, especially with that last bit. Scenesse is a drug where...

Agreed, especially with that last bit. Scenesse is a drug where the efficacy can be determined by any ordinary Joe simply by taking a quick look at some before and afters. It isn't rocket science, it is a drug that has been extensively studied to boost the pigment in the skin via the natural mechanism with minimal side effects (existing FDA approval confirms high safety profile whilst 95% retention rate amongst EPP users confirms a comfortable experience with the drug). Now vitiligo is a disease characterised by a lack of pigment in the skin, so it makes fairly intuitive sense that a drug that is well known to boost pigment will help with this condition (not to mention we already know it does as there have been many cases confirming this to be the case). It helps as well that due to the lack of treatments options for Vitiligo, the bar is fairly low. Scenesse should easily not only achieve, but significantly beat, the primary endpoint of 50% re-pigmentation.

However I disagree a bit with the hypothetical scenario where the company is unable to succeed with Vitiligo and the share price falls significantly. That might be the case with a pre-revenue company, but Clinuvel has an established existing stream of sales and cashflows. With over $200m cash (FY25), and earnings likely around $40m by next year, would an EV of $300m (assuming a $10 share price) be reasonable for a steadily growing high margin healthcare company with a monopoly position? It might pull back a bit due to the usual panic, but such a valuation I doubt could last very long (although even $15 surprises me in terms of how low it is, so we should never underestimate the market!).

Worth remembering that the share price today sits at 5-year lows, despite all the progress that has been made and the steady growth in earnings. I don't think the price has yet begun to anticipate the Vitiligo opportunity, nor the even more exciting Sunless Tanning pportunity.

My view, which is why I created this thread, is that Clinuvel is substantially undervalued due to the fact the price ALREADY is where I would expect it to be if Vitiligo and sunless tanning were to completely disappear from existence. Clinuvel's undervaluation is not so much related to what the Vitiligo and sunless tanning opportunity should be valued at (that is the multi-billion dollar upside), but what the EPP business should be valued at if we were to examine it in isolation. The EPP business, generating consistently growing and recurring cashflows, deserves a higher valuation on its own that the current market cap of the entire CUV business IMO. A market cap of 20x earnings and an EV of 15x earnings is what we currently have. It shouldn't really matter how progress with Phase 3 Trial and Sunless Tanning is going, that isn't even being valued into the current market cap. Each share at these prices essentially provides a free option to benefit from all that upside (if all eventuates as planned), with the steady EPP business protecting us from the downside (in theory at least).