the mother of all bounces on asx will be gip, page-9

As i may be seen as biased by some Raks will just point out some "neutral" research posted already but worth posting again i think.

Secondary sources of tantalum
Synthetic Concentrates (SynCon):
Synthetic concentrates are reprocessed secondary materials containing tantalum. They are prepared from the processing of scrap, residues and sludges and the pyrometallurgical treatment of tin slags containing tantalum into a product containing 70-90% tantalum content. HC Starck maintains large scale capabilities to produce synthetic concentrates of tantalum at their German operations. Tantalite processors then use this product in a similar fashion to normal tantalum concentrates, hence the term synthetic concentrates. We estimate that production will remain relatively stable, around the 450,000 pound to 500,000-pound level going forward, but may be enhanced now that Wodgina has closed. However, it should be noted that feedstock is needed to create the SynCon materials.


HC Starck maintains large scale capabilities to produce synthetic concentrates of tantalum at their German operations. Tantalite processors then use this product in a similar fashion to normal tantalum concentrates, hence the term synthetic concentrates. We estimate that production will remain relatively stable, around the 450,000 pound to 500,000-pound level going forward, but may be enhanced now that Wodgina has closed. However, it should be noted that feedstock is needed to create the SynCon materials.
Summary and Conclusions:
1.The closing of the Wodgina mine as announced on Nov. 26, 2008, coupled with the previous closing of the Greenbushes mine, and the exhaustion of tantalum resources at the United States Defense Logistics Agency, has created an unprecedented challenge for the $2 billion global tantalum capacitor industry.
2.Even though the trade statistics support a large-scale increase in exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to satisfy this shortfall, the major processors, including Cabot Corporation and H.C. Starck are adamant about NOT sourcing from the central Africa region and violating UN sanctions. The majority of tantalum ore from the Congo is going to China.
3.Global demand for ore will now switch to Brazil, Canada and Mozambique in an attempt to satisfy the shortfall, but the resources in these locations are not large enough to satisfy the loss of Wodgina from the supply chain.
4.Vendors in the supply chain will continue to draw down inventories to make up any shortfalls, although the stockpiles of tantalum powder and wire will differ from company to company, with some capacitor manufacturers for example reporting as little as three months supply and others stating they have at least two years supply.
5.Greater pressure will be placed on the Mega-Projects in Egypt and Saudi Arabia to step up their conversion process from resources to producing mines.
6.OEMs in the electronics industry will search for alternatives to tantalum capacitors, primarily in solid polymer aluminum, high capacitance MLCC and niobium oxide type capacitors; but in certain instances, only tantalum will suffice, especially in certain computer, automotive, medical, mining and defense electronics applications where the combination of ultra-small size and extremely high capacitance is required for the circuit.
Also you may find it a profitable use of you time to Check out H.C Starcks (gippsalnds offtake partner) news section http://www.hcstarck.com/index.php?page_id=246 And Gippslands Recent updates of the 20th and 25th of last month.

Robert