Because gold bears have consistently cried "bear" during golds 10 year ascent, it is logical to assume their predictions are of little value. But this is erroneous. To the contrary, I believe that the predictions of at least one gold bear, Jon Nadler, can be used to accurately predict the future price of gold.
Kitco's Jon Nadler is todays most notorious gold bear and, although Mr. Nadlers predictions are remarkably consistent, they also have been consistently wrong but within this consistency lies a clue to tomorrows price of gold. The website www.buygoldco.com kept track of Mr. Nadlers predictions regarding the future price of gold in 2010. In November 2006, he predicted in 2010 gold would average $800.
In October 2008, he predicted gold would be in the low $500 an ounce range in 2010.
In January 2010: he predicted with a view to the three-year average gold price still near $845.
In May 2010 (with gold at $1200), He predicted the 2010 price would end [lower]gold at the $800 per ounce figure. I am not alone in computing such figures.
From 2006 to 2010, Nadler predicted the price of gold would be in the low $500s to the high $800s today, a spread of approximately $400, the mean being approximately $700.
Based on this data, the apparently unerringly accurate Nadler Gold Predict-O-Meter is as follows:
To accurately predict the future price of gold, investors can take the arithmetic mean of Mr. Nadlers predictions then simply double it, i.e. $700 x2 = $1400, a number which, astoundingly, is almost exactly todays gold price, i.e. $1405, at the end of 2010.
There is indeed gold in the droppings of bears, at least one of them; but be forewarned, you will have to look long and hard to find it.
More on this can be found here. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25296.html
