Took a stab at what I think 2023 and 2024 may look like.
2022 2023 2024
Revenue 34,421 50% incr 51,500 60% incr 82,500
Cost of Sales (6,041) 50% incr (9,000) 60% incr (14,500)
Barda Income 3,215 90% decr 370 ?
Sales & Mkt (21,913) 75% incr (39,000) 20% incr (47,000)
G & A (23,330) 12% incr (26,1300 10% incr (28,700)
R & D (13,857) 50% decr (7,000) 50% decr (3,000)
Total Expense (59,100 ) (72,130) (79,200)
Gross Profit 28,380 42,500 68,000
Operating Loss (27,505) (29,630) (11,200)
Interest Expense (16) (16) (16)
Other Income 892 700 500
Loss Pre Tax (26,629) (28,946) (10,716)
Inc Tax Provision (36) (35) (50)
Net Loss (26,665) (28,981) (10,766)
Cash&Eq+Mkt Sec 79,000 50,000 39,000 The 2022 numbers are from the SEC 10K filing, the others are my projections.
With the 6 kits per month per salesman breakeven guidance I came up with an average sales price of $6150USD/kit.
I used the $9.4m commercial sales from last quarter. If you use the current 20+ kit per salesman per month number:
$9.4m = 30 salesmen x 20 kits x 3 months = 1800 kits sold, $9.4m/1800 = $5,222 per kit average sale price. Too low.
So I assumed their sales people have gradually come up to that 20+ kits over the past several months.
Say 16 last October, 17 last November, and 18 in December, for an average of 17/month per salesman last quarter. So:
$9.4m = 30 salesmen x 17 kits x 3 months = 1530 kits sold, $9.4m/1530 = @ $6150 per kit average sale price.
A little more reasonable considering they've never disclosed their discount pricing.
6 kits at $6150 is $36,900 per month covers all costs per sales person, including salary, commision, taxes, benefits, travel, equipment and any other associated overhead costs. That comes to about $450k per salesman per year and they are adding 40 more. I assume they will be adding the bulk of those from early May to late July this year. I assume it does not cover additional marketing costs.
The 2023 revenue of $51.5m assumes the current 30 salesmen continue at their 21 kit (my interpretation of 20+) per month pace and the new 40 salesmen do 3.4 kits per month for the last 6 months of the year. Seems very achievable and very possibly on the low side.
average 12 kits per month next year. Very conservative IMO. Once traumatic wounds is added to the mix those original 30 will likely be boosting their sales numbers substantially from 21. I can see them exiting 2024 at $100m+ without a great deal of effort.
My increase in 2024 sales & marketing costs may be a little light, so add $9m and that would get you to Corbett's $30m cash on hand end of 2024.
Feel free to play and quibble with my assumptions, I promise not to pay attention. I added nothing for Japan, so that will be a sweetener.
All of this and the guidance from Avita are simply projections at this point, the real test is yet to come.
If anyone cares to take a shot at 2025 with vitiligo added feel free.
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