The near term future, page-7

Nice thought process and projections to get to JC's guidance of in excess of $30m cash by the end of 2024!

I was struggling to get my forecast down into the $30m range but then again, I was allowing for higher commercial revenues (including Japan) FY23: $58m (+69% YoY); FY24: $110m (+90% YoY). It looks like I got a bit carried away after listening the recent calls where Jim said so many nice things like:

• "2023 will be the year of inflection for AVITA Medical, transforming our business to encompass multiple indications and dramatically expanding our growth trajectory." (If Jim's "considerably more" = 50% growth, I wonder what Jim's "dramatically" equals?)

• "What will really be exciting, quite honestly, is our exit rate in Q4, because it's going to really position us for high growth in 2024."

• "I think we have some very strong growth years ahead of us with soft tissue and burns on their own."

• "The metric I used was contribution margin for the cost of a rep is equivalent approximately to five RECELL kits. And that our current sales reps in burns-only are averaging in excess of 20. So just as baseline, that's where we are. Do we think that the market opportunity to be greater than 20 per month exists? Actually very much so. We expect that the potential is quite higher than that, because of course, the market cases, the patients that we are treating are approximately 4 times the number that are in burns."

• In terms of, the ramp-up rate it takes for a salesperson to get from zero to five kits a month and then from five kits a month to 20 kits a month, what does that profile look like for the purposes of us looking at what the ramp-up might be for soft tissue? "on the front end of it is less than half a year. And on the longer end, it's well under a year. In fact when we were launching with burns it was actually harder. We were less proven at that time. And the market was narrower in terms of, the indication we were pursuing. So we actually are very optimistic about the equation that you're describing."

• "Expansion of our US field sales organization will result in a peak operating expense as a percent of revenue in Q3 2023."

• Automation device approval "will lead to the biggest source of growth excluding indication expansion".

• FDA submissions for soft tissue and vitiligo "past 100-day mark without any notice of material deficiencies from the FDA which is an important milestone because the FDA will request a meeting if there’s some misalignment in how the two parties is working towards approval."

• Soft tissue and vitiligo trial week 52 results - “we want it published and want it released because we get to use it to share with our surgeon customers.”

• “Have a very strong business model in front of us, where we want to invest into growth and adoption of RECELL. We know that will create a sustainable cash generating Enterprise, along the way we have so many opportunities. We’re going to have to be sure we choose the right ones and invest our capital carefully and appropriately.”

• "Now we have to execute."