When burns rollout began, Recell still needed to gain access to hospitals via the VAC review committee at each hospital. Soft Tissue reconstruction will hit the ground running since over 70 burn centers double up as trauma centers, so Avita's product is already being purchased by those hospitals for burns and could be easily used for trauma as well since Recell already has reimbursement established for soft tissue injuries; the benefits are already known at those hospitals, and many of the surgeons are already trained.
Assuming that there are 1000 trauma centers, let's say that Avita already has access to 70. 70/1000= 7%. --I know it's not that simple, so let's just call it a rough estimate. .07 x 391,000 Recell-eligible-procedures = 27,370 soft tissue procedures that Recell can treat annually right now. Right now, let's assume that Recell has access to 25,000 burns procedures plus 27,370 soft tissue procedures in 2023 for a total of 52,370 procedures. Wait, there are also 10,000 additional burns procedures at the trauma centers. So, 7% of 10000 is another 700 procedures. So 52,370+700= 53,070 procedures a year. Since half the year is already gone, let's say 1/2 x (27,370 + 700) + 25,000 = 39,015 procedures that Recell can treat in 2023 versus the previous 25,000. That's 56% more than last year. These procedures will grow in quantity with each new hospital added. Then, when we think we're getting ahead, vitiligo sales will begin, and we'll get even more ahead.
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