Thanks to @saltland and others for sharing their analysis and...

Thanks to @saltland and others for sharing their analysis and projections. Here is my analysis based on the growth in numbers of sales reps and JC's statements about his expectations for their sales rates:

Relevant statements by JC (may not be exact words):

• "Our current sales reps in burns only are averaging in excess of 20 units per month"
• "We expect that the potential is quite higher than that"
• "For new sales reps, they should get to >5 units/month within 6 months, and to >20 units/month in well under a year".

It is anyone's guess how quickly Avita can get to 10%, 20% and 40% of the greatly expanded soft tissue and burns market, which is now around 17x that of just burns. That will be related to the resources that Avita applies. Although I am confident that Avita can and will get to a large % of that market, for my short-term investment decisions I have chosen to base my estimates on the present number of sales reps, how quickly they can get to >20 units/month, and a likely improvement in sales rep efficiency.

The revenue run rate as at December 2022 was almost exactly $10M (average of 4Q22 and 1Q23). This was before the ramp up in sales reps in 1Q23 and 2Q23 from 30 to 70. Based on JC's statements, all 70 sales reps should be at the > 20 units/month rate by around end March 2024. Then there is JC's expectation of a rate quite higher than that, most likely due to efficiencies in selling both for burns and a much larger soft tissue market. I will assume a 20% efficiency increase by June 2024.

So, the sales run rate by June 2024 should be around ($10M x 1.2 x 70) / 30 = $28M quarterly. This is an increase of 180% in 18 months from December 2022 to June 2024. According to @saltland's spreadsheet, 4Q23 total cost of sales is $2.56M and total OPEX is $18.77M. Assuming only a 10% increase in these costs in the 6 months to 2Q24, then the operating profit run-rate should be around $28M - $2.8M - $20.6M = $4.6M by June 2024. This indicates a strongly profitable 2H24, excluding vitiligo costs.

P.S. If we want to encourage investors to keep sharing their analysis, we need to provide feedback to them via a GA when we think their analysis was original and useful. I believe this will ensure a much stronger and higher quality commentary on Avita.