The Negative Thread, page-198

It goes without saying that everyone would have been better off when the SP was double its current position.

And some have told me the SP would be at 10 cents now, they're also wrong, that's why you should DYOR and be happy with whatever you individually decide, you win some and you lose some.

Your using hindsite as your guide, what will the SP be at in 12 months and what stage will the business be at in your opinion?

Like I said, it's ok to use hindsite but who knows what's going to definitely happen in the future, I don't claim to know, but I certainly like what's panning out and I want to be a part of that, win lose or draw, IMO if your going to take a punt for the LT it may as well be in something with great fundermentals, and that IMO is what this company has.

The SP is only relevant to LT holders if we need a CR, if that's not the case then it's really only noise until decent revenue rolls in, if at that stage the SP doesn't move, then there's an issue (I'm talking about 12 months of consistent revenue, not one 4c with $5mill), but I'm quiet confident the SP will rise when revenue comes in.

For others that look at the SP as a gauge as to how a business is performing, you would be certainly unhappy with the last 12 months action, but to me that's not what the business is doing, the SP is out of the companies hands to control, they can control communications and probably even when revenue will hit, but what the market does with that information is not up to the company.

In my view the only way possible to value a company in this position with a hold period of a minimum of 3 to 5 years starting from back 2 years ago, is to make sure the FA is continually ticking over, if the business becomes stagnate in anyway it's a sure sign of 'business stress' IMO, if that were to come about I'd
re-evaluate my position, but the opposite can also occur and the business can show exceptional growth and may warrant more funds to be invested in it, and IMO that's what's happening with this company, hence my continued buying.

Plenty are annoyed with the SP action and have blamed everything from other countries problems to manipulation to pretty much anything else available, some external circumstances have definitely effected the SP, but what will tell all in the end is if the business is performing or not, because if the business isn't performing you get no revenue and the SP simply won't go up, on the other hand if the business is performing the SP must eventually follow, that's the simple logic I use, and from what I've researched, the business is doing very well, indeed custom growth at this stage of the business cycle is probably the most important thing (as without that you don't have funds coming in), and this area seems to be booming.

It all comes down to ones time frames on business cycles, before I invest I look at these simple things.

The management team comes first, you can have the most knowledgable teacher in the world, but if he/she can't get that information across to the students, he/she is then useless in that roll, it's the same with selling anything, if you don't have the right people pushing everything in the right direction, you may as well give up.

The next thing I look at is investment time, to achieve this you need to do a rough estimation on how long every part of the business cycle will take, this varies considerably depending on what stock your getting into, at what stage they're already at, and indeed some companies don't have the same cycles due to being in totally different fields.

The biggest thing I've noticed on HC is that most people expected us to have had large amounts of revenue in the door before it was ever going to be possible
(and this will be the main part of the business cycle that drives the SP), even to pull off US $18.5 mill by the end of the CY would be a great effort, I'm not saying they can't do it, and I'm not saying they won't fall short or exceed it either, what I go back to is to look at the timeframes of when I first expected some sort of revenue, and for me that was always from about this quarter onwards, so having 10 mill revenue in the first or second quarter of my timeframe would be great, but I'm not holding my breath.

And just to point out one last thing, for my personal investment style, if the company don't make what they keep saying they will make by the end of the year, it will certainly annoy me that they've continually announced it but haven't reached their target, but I'll personally be looking at the bigger picture, and that's if we get a good rise in % on revenue but don't make the forecasted target, I'll still be more than happy to stay invested as long as the companies fundermentals remain strong and there's evident growth, I simply don't see the point of getting cranky and selling just because I'm annoyed at management not hitting their announced target, what would that prove, at this time there will most likely be other investors who wait until revenue is proven (regardless of amount) before entering, they'd pick my shares up and the company wouldn't even have a blip of it on its radar, the SP will IMO rise with revenue acquisition, so if I did get cranky and sell out when revenue is finally starting to come in (regardless of amount) the only one who loses out is me from not being objective about my investment.

Everyone's strategies are different for both entry and exits, mine have never changed and the company if anything has only grown quicker than I thought, everything else timeframe wise has been rough enough, right from my pre purchase estimates, but they were only ever rough estimates and if I'm out by a quarter or a half on revenue, so be it.

Everyone's different!

Cheers.