Extract from http://www.financialsense.com/series3/part1.htm
Hubbert estimated world oil reserves at 1.8 trillion barrels. Since that time and including new discoveries, the estimate has been raised to 2.0 to 2.1 trillion barrels of oil. We now have data on world oil production going back to 1850. Colin J. Campbell of Petroconsultants has made a country-by-country estimate of the world’s oil reserves. His estimates match those of Hubbert at 1.8 trillion barrels. With updated data, there has been no significant bulge or dip in the world's production curve as originally estimated by Hubbert. Using production decline curves from known oil reserves, petroleum analysts using Hubbert’s methods have now been able to estimate the peak in world oil production. According to these estimates, world oil production will begin to peak between the years of 2004 and 2008. A few of the top geologists, including Colin J. Campbell, think that peak is in 2003. The point to understand is that we are depleting our oil reserves at an annual rate of 6% a year; while demand growth is growing at an annual rate of 2%. In order to simply keep even, the world’s oil industry would have to find the equivalent of 8% a year of new oil reserves from new discoveries. This is not happening. The world consumes 76 million barrels of oil a day. This oil is not being replaced.
There is nothing going on in the Caspian Sea, West Africa, or the South China Sea that would come close to replacing what we are now consuming. There aren’t any conservation measures like more efficient refrigerators, better gasoline mileage for autos, better insulated homes, or longer lasting light bulbs that could conserve enough energy to make up the difference between demand and supply. For that matter, there are no renewable energy projects on the horizon that could immediately help us to avoid a future energy crisis. Political leaders and the public are totally oblivious to this fact. They are not paying attention. Last year's energy crisis has now been forgotten. The news media explained the crisis in terms of industry price gouging, regulations, taxes, and distribution problems. No one is paying attention to world production declines in the U.S. or elsewhere. This means there is nothing that can be done now in order to avoid a future crisis. It takes years from the time of discovery of new oil to the time it is produced, shipped, and refined and consumed as energy. The oil that is discovered today won’t reach the markets for another 8-10 years. An unprecedented crisis is just over the horizon because of inattention and neglect.
