The New Normal, page-38

El Nino - neutral so no influence.

"In the Pacific Ocean, although indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are neutral, the tropical ocean near and to the west of the Date Line remains warmer than average, potentially drawing some moisture away from Australia.

"Most climate models indicate ENSO will remain neutral until at least the end of the southern hemisphere autumn, meaning it will have limited influence on Australian and global climate." (BOM)

Southern Annular Mode - positive. increased rain to south-eastern Aus




"In a positive SAM phase, the belt of westerly winds contracts towards Antarctica. Since the westerly winds and high pressure are already further south below the continent, the southward movement only acts to decrease rain events for western Tasmania.

"In eastern Australia, the southward movement of the westerly winds means that more moist onshore flow from the Tasman and Coral seas is drawn inland, and thus increases rainfall for eastern Australia. This effect for eastern parts of Australia is much more widespread in summer as the east coast climatologically receives its highest rainfall in the summertime."

All looking good for a drop and a wetter, cooler second half of summer