the "new" pad...

those of you that have no idea what the new pad (near the existing one) is for, the pieces of info have already been presented to us, over the past year or so... )

The current pad is used by many other users as a base and for storage and whatnot, so cannot be used longterm for hydrocarbon production...

DW said to the people at the pub do in Melbourne last year (?), from which the entire feedback was posted on this site;
something along the lines of a production setup along the road with up to like 10 wells for like 30k bopd...
(the numbers i am stating from memory, so i stand to be corrected...)

further to this... at the last big live (to shareholders in london) presentation, he and/or PB stated the next step after ICE2 horizontal extension/completion would be a small production setup of 4 to 5 horizontals with a gas injector, being done nearby...

the drop may simply be that the smaller setup would be enough to show the majors that it works, and better to spend less on it for now during low oil prices etc.. OR it could have to do with PBs "the drill we dont talk about"... no doubt many of you know what sort of ICE2 flowrate is needed for that one, so will not mention it here )
so it will all come down to the flowrates on ICE2 !!!

further intelligence from lse/HC posters present at the presentations, that effectively came from beneath the duct-tape, stated that some 100 to 120mill dollars would be needed for this work...
i am not sure if that was to cover the entire follow up work or just the production setup... but nevertheless, this figure is about 20 to 25mill per drill or so... so could kindda fit in with it just for production setup (for now)...

so in summary...
IF ICE2=Success, then;
ICE3 = horizontal drilled as extension of ICE2 (or next to it ??) on the current ICE1/2 location (Franklins Bluff)... aiming for minimum 2k to 2.5k bopd (??ie; will need to be confirmed in future...)
ICE4 = vertical stepout to FarWest going into the stacked conventional targets plus going vertical into HRZ (similar to ICE2 work)...
For this work based on DWs figures in video just day or so ago, plus add in 10mill for licence payments and 2018 admin, and include the expiring Q1 2018 oppies all being converted, i came up with about 30 to 37mill AUD needing to be raised after ICE2...
if they were to use the 10% facility (or about 10% dilution pre-oppies conversion), then that would put it at about 8cent level... but the sp for the raisings is very very unknown at this stage... tis just a wild guess !!

then IF ICE3 = Success, then;
new pad near to Franklins Bluff (or could be extension of the existing one, cos DW mentioned it to the Melbourne pub group), for the production setup, which was last mentioned as 4 to 5 horizontals plus 1 gas injector... possibly costing as much as 120mill...

a further very important note is this...
at which stage can they book RESERVES ? cos they can get bank debt on the back of having real Reserves... and that would mean use Debt and no more share dilutions nor farmout !!!

I understood that ICE2 success can lift it only from current Prospective Resources to Contingent Resources, but from there it needs to get to Reserves category...
I thought that the horizontal completion of ICE2 (=ICE3) would be enough, but a poster on lse stated that it would need two horizontals...
so perhaps after ICE5 (=nearby step out horizontal), they can book some many many millions of barrels of oil as Reserves, and potentially create the situation whereby after the first flowing horizontal of the Production setup (which would be the second flowing horizontal overall), that they could then try to use Bank debt or local Alaskan Development fund Loan for the majority of the interpreted potential 100-120mill needed for the production setup...

if this turns out a real possibility, it would mean;
after the next cap raising for ICE3 and ICE4, there may need to be one more at a much much higher price just for the pad and first drill (ICE5) with remainder coming from Loan, and the total diluted shares on issue end up being like 6 to 6.5bill or so (=current fully diluted 5.35bil shares+ next cap raise?? 465mill shares+ following cap raise?? ), at which point there may be a production setup producing anything from 10k bopd to 25k bopd... and the HRZ proven to be good all the way to the FarWest as well as the conventional...